Misty summer of 2013


Misty summer 2013Financial markets are still in a fog of uncertainty. The main question is the reduction of QE3 in the U.S.: when will it happen and in what scale? The FOMC reports are contradictory, while the news from the U.S. is also mixed… As a result, investors are in anticipation of important events. So, before each news release we have a feeling that now the mist will dispel and the prospects become clear. Yet the situation did not become more clear and the markets are still waiting for major news…

The same situation was observed last week, when the market was waiting for a key report on employment in the United States, which could provide the guidelines for further dynamics in the foreign exchange market. However, the reports showed vague results: on the one hand, the Non-Farm Employment Change rose, but the unemployment rate also increased. The number of new jobs increased by 175,000 a month, yet it wasn’t enough for the desirable reduce of unemployment rate to a target level of 6.5% (i.e. 200,000 new jobs per month)…

Other sources also show mixed signals. A long-term bullish trend in the U.S. stock market is continued, but a 20-day moving average turned down, which hints at a medium-term fall.

The Fed representatives also did not show a unified position. The members, who support trimming quantitative easing, see no sense in continuing QE3 even despite serious problems in the U.S. economy. Last week, U.S. FOMC Member Fisher stated that the efforts of the central bank still wouldn’t compensate for the weakness of the legal system. Apparently, Fisher meant that the budget sequestration (which was triggered by Congressmen, who were unable to reach consensus) couldn’t be neutralized by the “cheap money” policy, so a key to economic growth should be found in the U.S. Capitol, not at the central bank. At the same time, other FOMC members remind that the country’s economy couldn’t be left without support like monetary stimulus.

So, the situation remains uncertain and opening the medium-term and long-term positions is not recommended before the next FOMC meeting (on June 19). Perhaps, it will give the market more reliable guidelines, yet I expect that the mist could last until fall.


About Author

I have been friend with currency market since 2006. I hope that this friendship is not only useful to me, because over the years I have repeatedly provided analytical services to various companies and media outlets. I love fundamental analysis. Every day, I am convinced that the statistics is not boring numbers but fascinating reading, which, moreover, can predict the future. Technical analysis is also not neglected, especially as my hobby - finding effective algorithms for automated trading systems.