Australian dollar: no time for buying


australian dollarAustralia’s economic growth report for the fourth quarter 2012 gladdened investors last week. The day before some analysts pumped clouds forecasting that Australia’s GDP would unlikely reach expected level +0.6% q/q. There were vain doubts: as taking into account quarter statistics report coincided with forecasts, and taking into account annual statistics – it even surpassed expectations (+3.1% y/y, and only +3.0% ). What is more, index of the third quarter was raised from +0.5% to +0.7% q/q.

These numbers forced the head of Treasury of Australia Swan to characterize national economy growth in the end of last year as «strong». Quantitative easing implemented by Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) started to influence economy, by the way, there are the first signs of growth in non-raw sector of economy, Swan noted with satisfaction
So, at last the RBA started to reap the fruits of its economic stimulus. But, in spite of the fact that I like ozzy, in this post I would like to note weak moments of the last Australia’s economy statistics.

• More than a year economy of “green continent” suffers from foreign trade deficit. What is more, in spite of expectations, in January negative balance not only decreased, but even considerably increased in comparison with December, it was 1.06 milliard Australian dollars in comparison with 0.69 milliards in December and forecast, which expected 0.5 milliards. Such dynamics was caused by 1% m/m export decrease, when import increased at the same time.
• Manufacturing Business Activity Index for February kept decreasing – at the level of 45.6.
• A number of construction permissions decreased in January second month in secession – by 2.4% m/m after -1.7% in December.
• in spite of Australian economy growth, income of national companies decreased by 1.0% in the fourth quarter.

Australian Central Bank expects that investments in mining sector reach its top this year, and then start decreasing. At the meeting in February , the RBA lowered its national economy growth forecast for 2013. It was accompanied by an announcement of the head of the Bank Glam Stiven, who said that rise in investments in non-raw sector and real estate remains slow, and demand for loan – law.

Economists fear that efforts of Chinese government – the main trade partner of Australia – connected with fight against inflation and rose home prices might lead to fall in demand in the main item of export of “green continent” – raw materials. What is more, sharp fall of Service sector business activity index of Republic of China cause more apprehensions concerning the fact that the second largest world’s economy slowed down.



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I have been friend with currency market since 2006. I hope that this friendship is not only useful to me, because over the years I have repeatedly provided analytical services to various companies and media outlets. I love fundamental analysis. Every day, I am convinced that the statistics is not boring numbers but fascinating reading, which, moreover, can predict the future. Technical analysis is also not neglected, especially as my hobby - finding effective algorithms for automated trading systems.