It is obvious that fear concerning “budget cliff’ was changed by apprehension over the US debt-ceiling problem which is almost solved, but another amendment is needed in order to increase debt ceiling. Such situation, which confirms remained uncertainty, supported risk-averse investors, which preferred the dollar as a shelter-currency. What is more, optimism might be decreased by announcement of rating agencies, according to which the US agreement of “budget cliff” avoidance is not enough for keeping credit rating. Economic statistics released yesterday demonstrated various results concerning the US employment, but market mostly took into account positive information. ADP report showed increased number of working placed in private sector in December by 215 thousands, this result was better-then-expected, as 150 thousands were expected, at the same time results for November were reviewed, now it is improved to 148 thousands from 118 thousands. But, number of unemployment insurance initial claims was increased last week by 10 thousands, when only 7 thousands were expected. The dollar was also supported by publication of protocol of the FRS last meeting, which doubted necessity and efficiency of the last quantitative easing program. Today’s news contains very important information, it is as usual the US labor market statistics which is published on the first Friday of the month. Unemployment level is expected to remain at the same level – 7.7%, and number of working places in non-farm sector is expected to rise by 145 thousands after +146 thousands a month earlier. Good US employment statistics may add confidence in “the backs” and result in its further strengthening.
Euro decreased against dollar in the last trading session. It was caused by the US problems which lead to risk-aversion, on the one hand, and remaining uncertainty concerning recovery of euro zone economy, which lately demonstrated bad statistics of manufacturing activity, on the other hand. Good Germany’s unemployment statistics, according to which number of unemployed increased only by 3 thousands in comparison with +5 thousands in November, when +11 thousands were expected, didn’t influence investors’ mood. It is obvious that stable Germany’s labor market is not a surprise, but euro zone crediting statistics, which was released in trading session yesterday, was disappointing. According to the announcement of the ECB, the private sector’s credit supply was reduced by0.8% in November in comparison with the same month last year after the same reduction in October. Non-financial companies credit supply was reduced by 5 milliard euros after fall by 8 milliard euros a month earlier.
If talking about positive news, household credits were increased, in November it increased by 5 milliards after +4 milliard euros in October. But, M3 monetary aggregate remained the same in November in comparison with the previous months, and it slightly decreased per annum, to +3.8% y/y after +3.9% y/y in October. Today’s news package will present PMI indices of service sector for December, which is expected to fall in all EU countries except Germany, and also information about consumer inflation, which is expected with slightly decreased price pressure per annum – CPI for December is expected to at the level of 2.1% y/y after 2.2% y/y before. Weak activity in service sector after the same trend in production sector, may add pressure on euro. But still the US employment statistics will be the most important in today’s trading session.
British pound decreased against the dollar in trading session yesterday. Except common reasons, which caused risk-aversion, the sterling was also pressured by British economic statistics. The second part of economic activity statistics – report for the construction sector activity for December presented weak data. Construction Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) of Great Britain fell to 48.7 in December after 49.3 in November, when increase to the level of 49.6 was expected. What is more, released report of Nationwide announced about UK house price decrease in December, the index fell by 0.1% m/m and -1.0% y/y. Today’s news package is going to show one more indicator which finishes publication of the UK economic activity statistics. Service sector PMI for December will be released, which is dominant in UK economy. It is expected to increase to 50.4 in comparison with 50.2 in November. Maybe it will slightly support the sterling in today’s trading session if these data come true. But, the US employment statistics will be the most important factor of influence.
Japanese currency was continuing to decrease against the dollar in trading session yesterday, but it increased against European majors again. It is obvious that fear of the US economic problems caused demand in the Japanese currency as a shelter-currency, at the same time it remained interesting as state funding currency against the dollar as a results of sharp rise of the US “treasuries” revenue, which was observed in the last trading session. There are holidays in Japan, that is why economic and political news were not published yesterday. Today there will be no important events in the Land of the Rising Sun, and the yen will continue to be under the influence of external factors of influence, first of all, of the USA, where very important document is expected to be released, it is labor marker report for December.