In one of the recent reviews, I underlined that the Australian dollar shows a much weaker dynamics, compared to the Canadian dollar, though the current macro-economic indicators show that Australia is not much weaker than Canada. After these words the Canadian dollar sank, so now it’s the Loonie’s turn… This week, the Canadian dollar fell and reached an eighteen-month low against the U.S. dollar.
This fall was triggered by B. Bernanke’s press conference on June 19, where he mentioned that the Fed was going to end quantitative easing. This event increased the demand for the U.S. dollar and influenced commodity prices: Light Sweet crude oil lost 4.2% last week, Brent – 4.5%, gold – 6.7%. Lower commodity prices were quite expected; the Canadian dollar reacted accordingly and lost 3.2% during the week.
This week, the U.S. dollar correction and a moderate recovery in commodity prices stopped further growth of the USD/CAD. So, Canadian economic news for April, which is expected to be released today and tomorrow, will play crucial role for the currency: a labor market report is expected to be released today, while GDP report will see the world tomorrow. Weak data will send the Canadian dollar towards 1.0660 area – the maximum in 2011.
However, in the long run, I still think that the Canadian dollar is the most attractive of higher-yielding currencies. In the post-crisis economic reality, the determinative factor for the commodity currencies is not the key interest rates, rather the success of the major trading partners. Should Australia’s major partner – China – slow down, Canada’s major partner – the U.S. – expects upcoming economic growth. I hope that the CAD will benefit from this contrast.