The expectations expressed in the analysis of 26.04.2013 were confirmed. The gold price resumed its fall and the bears reached the target levels of 1260/70. The gold is now testing the support at 1190/70, which was previously mentioned as a minimum, from which the downtrend could be resumed. However, now this assumption has weakened. The indicators continue to show a high possibility of continued decline. Crossing the tested level will let the price drop to the next support at 1041/50. However, this downward movement can be considered as correction within the dominant bullish trend, so the growth resumption is possible from the current levels. The hints at divergence on the MACD in smaller time frames (Daily) warn of this possibility.
Just as expected, the bears continued to test the support at 1.3060 and finally breached this obstacle. As a result, the pair dropped to the levels of 1.3000/1.2970, which were marked as the next targets. At those levels, the price has received support and consolidated in the range between 1.3060-1.3000. The pair is now trading at 1.3040/45. The indicators continue to show a weakening bearish sentiment, which supposes a move up to 1.3120 and possibly higher, to 1.3150/40. At the same time, it’s too early to discuss a change in the the trend, while crossing the support at 1.3000/1/2970 will announce a fall to new local minima at 1.2800/20, without a kickback to correction.
The bearish sentiment in the market turned out more aggressive: the price crossed all support levels without corrective consolidation (which was mentioned in the past analysis) and is now trading at 1.5240/30. Fixing below 1.5370/60 was previously mentioned as a signal of a reversal in the medium-term downtrend. This scenario was confirmed and now the price is expected to fall to the lows at 1.5040/00 in the near future. However, on its way down, the price will reach a strong support at 1.5150, from which a large-scale kickback may begin. The indicators increased the possibility of continuing the fall, which supports the bearish trend. Should the price rise and consolidate above the level of 1.5570/80, this will signal that the pair resumed its uptrend and the fall is no longer expected.