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  • USD

    The dollar fell against most currencies on Monday after housing data showed a deeper-than-expected fall in Pending Home Sales m-o-m in June, which contracted by -1.1% against the 0.5% increase investors had expected. The negative data was offset, however, by positive Services PMI which beat expectations of a fall to 59.8, by remaining unchanged at a relatively high 61.0.

    Other data showed that Pending Home Sales on a year-on-year basis actually improved to -4.5% when it had been expected to come out at -5.2%. Composite PMI came out a basis point below the the 61.0 previous figure, and the Dallas Fed manufacturing Index rose to 12.7, although this wasn’t quite the 12.8 forecast.

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  • If financial markets have a DNA – that is an underlying form – then the pattern known as the Measured Move must be a part of it, because I have seen it repeat over and over again on charts, with uncanny regularity.

    The term “Measured Move” (MM) was coined by a market technician called John Murphy to describe a pattern which is essentially made up of 3 waves in the shape of a zig-zag.

    Part of its charm is its simplicity: MM’s are composed of an A leg, followed by a corrective B leg, and then a final C leg, which resembles A. They can be either bullish or bearish, although my research was limited to the bullish variety.

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  •    
    The pair has pulled back after reaching resistance at 0.9460 from an old trend-line. Overall, however the very short-term up-trend continues intact and the pair is already recovering and will probably end the day higher. A break above 0.9425 could lead to a further extension higher, targeting the 0.9460 highs, and a move above those would probably reach the R1 monthly pivot at 0.9505.

    Upside expectations must be tempered, however, by the fact the pair has been range-bound on the daily and weekly charts since April. It’s unclear in which direction the exchange rate might break eventually once it exits this range, with arguments for both a up-side and down-side. A break-down would continue the longer-term trend, whilst a break higher would continue the medium-term up-trend.

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  • Cable has broken below the major trend-line drawn from the June 2013 lows and has fallen to support from the 50-day MA at 1.6963 where it has found support and bounced a little.

    The current short-term down-trend is strong, however, and expected to continue. The pair has also fallen for 3 down weeks in a row – another bearish sign that it is likely to continue lower. Although the 50-day MA stands in the way of more downside, the probability of a clear break below it and a continuation lower is quite high. Therefore a move below 1.6943 would indicate a clear break lower to the next support level at 1.6845.

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  • The pair continues falling in a short-term down-trend which I expect to extend. It has temporarily pierced below the S2 monthly pivot before pulling back up to it again. It is possible it may air-kiss it goodbye from its current level, and then resume it’s descent. A re-break of the 1.3420 lows would probably confirm a continuation lower to the next target at 1.3375. There is also a possibility that eventually the pair will reach the next target below that at 1.3300, confirmed by a break below 1.3350.

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  • Forex Technical AnalysisThe NZD/USD sank to a weekly downtrend line of 0.8550.

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  • Forex Technical AnalysisThe AUD/USD consolidates below the daily resistance level of 0.9420.

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  • Forex Technical AnalysisThe rise of the USD/JPY was stopped by the downtrend line of 101.85.

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  • Forex Technical AnalysisThe fall on the GBP/USD was stopped at the support level of 1.6970.

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  • Forex Technical AnalysisThe EUR/USD crossed below a strong support level of 1.3485.

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